I consider myself an evangelist and here are some of my predictions.
|S. No.||Prediction||Predicted On||Predicted Date by when it will come true.||Current Status|
|1||In spite of all that EFF and other may wish, taxes and laws will become a reality even on the Internet. This mean, that in future, transactions over the Net will be taxed. US will take a lead on this and EC and other countries will soon follow.||Oct 8, 2001||One can expect new laws to be agreed by WTO by the end of 2004.||While some states in US now tax sales over internet originating and ending in their territory, e-commerce mostly stays tax-free.|
|2||WAP - the much hyped standard for wireless communication
standard for data - and its cousin WML will never be adapted
industry-wide. Another standard based on existing TCP and (tiny-?) HTML
will emerge for web viewing on mobile handheld devices which will work
while staying compatible with current browsers and other software.
It is now becoming clear that this standard is GPRS. It will slowly establish itself as the dominant standard.
GPRS added on Sept 2001
|WAP will be gone for good by late 2001.
GPRS will establish itself by middle 2003
|As of Oct 2001; WAP, it seems, is gone for good.
What will happen to GPRS is yet to be seen.
|3||Amazon.COM will drown and taking with it the entire dream of dot com El Dorado.||late 1999||late 2001||Has not happened yet. It seems there is little chance it will happen in 2001.|
Digital content (online and offline) - in terms of music, movies, books etc will become common as business problems related to their copyright and "age" etc would be solved. Strong cryptography will be built into all the major operating systems and hardware devices that will ensure that the never illegally copied (e.g. audio tracks are not ripped). In the process, audio labels and other big houses will have to come with better terms with their customers with services like "make your own CD" (or rather collection) or pay-per-view. Here are some initial trends .
In the process, embedded devices (using linux, for example. see prediction 5) will become popular. Tablet computers and e-book readers will become common and ultimately digital content will truly move out of computers and into consumer devices. Current consumer devices will become closer to computers with web-connectivity, easy programmability (see prediction 7), extensibility, connectivity with other devices over standard interfaces and other other computer-like features built into them.
|early 2000, extended from e-books to all digital content on Mar 28, 2001||early 2004||While some progress is being made by two consortia led by Microsoft and Real, no real breakthroughs yet.|
|5||Linux (or its variants) will be the most common OS on embedded web-enabled devices. Computes and consumer devices will come closer and will have lots of features in common (see prediction 7).||Sometime late 1997||2004||Yet to happen. Embedded Linux still faces lot of competition from QNX and others.|
|6||TIVO (digital video sets with built-in programmable OS) and other similar devices will be as common as TV and VCR are today. New York Times agree.||late 1999||2004|
|7||The primary way of connecting to Internet (via browsers sitting on PCs) will change forever and their place will be take by a whole gamut of small and big devices which will provide different kind of (active and passive) functionality by their connection to the Net. In future, we will access the Internet without really thinking about it from a variety of interfaces.||early 2000||2008|
|8||Due to developments in genetics, biotechnology, nano-technology and other sciences; human, as a race, will conquer death. Human consciousness will (in theory, atleast) become forever living.||late 1999||2050|